https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app 面向中文黄金投资者的因果叙事：金价驱动因子、重大事件、本周关注、方法论。 zh-CN https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/articles/weekly-watch-2026-06-21 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/articles/weekly-watch-2026-06-21 Sun, 21 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMT 本周关注 6 月 FOMC 落地后，市场进入数据验证期。7 月 2 日非农、7 月 14 日 CPI 是 7 月 29 日议息前的两道关，金价对降息路径的定价将被反复校准。 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/articles/methodology-cb-purchases https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/articles/methodology-cb-purchases Mon, 15 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMT 方法论 央行购金是 2022 年以来金价的核心买盘，却也是最容易被误读的一个因子。本文讲清它从哪来、口径差异，以及为什么看「年度趋势」比「单季波动」更靠谱。 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/articles/cb-buying-wave-2022 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/articles/cb-buying-wave-2022 Wed, 10 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMT 事件深度 2022 年央行净购金突破 1,000 吨，创 1950 年以来纪录，并连续三年维持高位。这不只是避险，而是西方冻结俄罗斯外储后，新兴市场对「储备安全」的重新定价。 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/articles/weekly-watch-2026-05-25 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/articles/weekly-watch-2026-05-25 Mon, 25 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT 本周关注 本周市场聚焦 6 月 FOMC 与 5 月 CPI。市场定价维持利率不变概率约 68%。我们梳理本周关键事件、市场定价与历史中位反应。 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/articles/methodology-real-rate https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/articles/methodology-real-rate Wed, 20 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT 方法论 实际利率是黄金机会成本的核心衡量，也是长期最强的金价驱动因子。本文解释它从哪来、为什么重要，以及 2022 年后这层关系为何减弱。 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/articles/methodology-gpr https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/articles/methodology-gpr Mon, 18 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT 方法论 GPR 指数把"地缘紧张"量化成可对比的时间序列。本文解释它如何构建、如何读，以及它对金价是脉冲式而非持续性的影响。 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/articles/ukraine-2022-deep-dive https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/articles/ukraine-2022-deep-dive Sat, 16 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT 事件深度 2022 年的转折不只是一次地缘脉冲，而是一次货币体系层面的重估——西方冻结俄罗斯外储，开启了史无前例的央行购金大潮。 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/articles/covid-2020-deep-dive https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/articles/covid-2020-deep-dive Thu, 14 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT 事件深度 2020 年 3 月，黄金一度随股市一起暴跌——这违反了"避险资产"的直觉。理解这次非典型反应，是理解流动性危机的关键。 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/first-4000-2025 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/first-4000-2025 Wed, 08 Oct 2025 00:00:00 GMT 里程碑 央行购金 + 降息 + 地缘 + 财政担忧共振，金价首次突破 4000 美元。 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/tariffs-2025 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/tariffs-2025 Wed, 02 Apr 2025 00:00:00 GMT 政策 大规模关税引发贸易战与避险，金价加速上行。 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/first-3000-2025 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/first-3000-2025 Fri, 14 Mar 2025 00:00:00 GMT 里程碑 央行购金 + 降息 + 地缘共振，3000 美元整数关口被突破。 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/cpi-cool-2025 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/cpi-cool-2025 Wed, 15 Jan 2025 00:00:00 GMT 数据 通胀数据降温巩固宽松预期，实际利率回落支撑金价上行。 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/fed-hawkish-cut-2024 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/fed-hawkish-cut-2024 Wed, 18 Dec 2024 00:00:00 GMT 货币政策 2025 降息预期收敛,金价短线回落。 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/trump-elected-2024 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/trump-elected-2024 Wed, 06 Nov 2024 00:00:00 GMT 政策 关税预期 + 财政担忧推升避险需求，长期支撑金价。 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/iran-strike-oct-2024 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/iran-strike-oct-2024 Tue, 01 Oct 2024 00:00:00 GMT 地缘 地缘风险再起,金价维持高位。 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/fed-first-cut-2024 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/fed-first-cut-2024 Wed, 18 Sep 2024 00:00:00 GMT 货币政策 紧缩周期结束，市场进入宽松预期，启动新一轮上涨。 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/first-2500-2024 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/first-2500-2024 Fri, 16 Aug 2024 00:00:00 GMT 里程碑 降息预期 + 央行购金推动金价首次站上 2500 美元整数关口。 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/yen-unwind-2024 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/yen-unwind-2024 Mon, 05 Aug 2024 00:00:00 GMT 危机 日元套息交易平仓引发全球抛售，金价短暂回调后反弹。 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/iran-israel-2024 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/iran-israel-2024 Sat, 13 Apr 2024 00:00:00 GMT 地缘 中东冲突升级,避险推升金价。 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/fed-pivot-2023 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/fed-pivot-2023 Wed, 13 Dec 2023 00:00:00 GMT 货币政策 12 月点阵图暗示 2024 年三次降息，金价逼近历史高位。 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/israel-hamas-2023 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/israel-hamas-2023 Sat, 07 Oct 2023 00:00:00 GMT 地缘 哈马斯袭击事件后中东局势骤紧，GPR 飙升。 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/fed-final-2023 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/fed-final-2023 Wed, 26 Jul 2023 00:00:00 GMT 货币政策 政策利率升至 5.25–5.5%。 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/debt-ceiling-2023 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/debt-ceiling-2023 Thu, 25 May 2023 00:00:00 GMT 政策 债务上限谈判僵持，违约担忧支撑金价。 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/cs-ubs-2023 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/cs-ubs-2023 Sun, 19 Mar 2023 00:00:00 GMT 危机 欧洲银行业信心危机,避险买盘。 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/svb-2023 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/svb-2023 Fri, 10 Mar 2023 00:00:00 GMT 危机 SVB 倒闭引发区域性银行业危机，避险买盘推动金价急升逼近 $2000。 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/fed-75-2022 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/fed-75-2022 Wed, 02 Nov 2022 00:00:00 GMT 货币政策 紧缩高峰,金价探底约 $1620。 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/uk-gilt-2022 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/uk-gilt-2022 Wed, 28 Sep 2022 00:00:00 GMT 危机 英央行紧急购债稳定养老金市场。 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/cpi-peak-2022 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/cpi-peak-2022 Fri, 10 Jun 2022 00:00:00 GMT 数据 通胀触及 40 年高点，强化美联储激进加息预期，实际利率上行压制金价。 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/fed-liftoff-2022 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/fed-liftoff-2022 Wed, 16 Mar 2022 00:00:00 GMT 货币政策 本轮首次加息 25bp,开启激进紧缩。 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/ukraine-invasion-2022 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/ukraine-invasion-2022 Thu, 24 Feb 2022 00:00:00 GMT 地缘 战争 + 西方冻结约 3000 亿美元俄外储，启动 2022–2024 央行购金大潮。 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/transitory-2021 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/transitory-2021 Tue, 30 Nov 2021 00:00:00 GMT 货币政策 释放加速收紧信号,实际利率预期上行。 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/jackson-hole-ait-2020 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/jackson-hole-ait-2020 Thu, 27 Aug 2020 00:00:00 GMT 货币政策 Jackson Hole 宣布 AIT 框架，容忍通胀超调，利好黄金抗通胀属性。 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/first-2000-2020 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/first-2000-2020 Tue, 04 Aug 2020 00:00:00 GMT 里程碑 实际利率深度负值 + 巨量 QE，金价首次突破 2000 美元。 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/unlimited-qe-2020 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/unlimited-qe-2020 Mon, 23 Mar 2020 00:00:00 GMT 货币政策 Fed 宣布无限 QE，金价触底反弹，开启 5 个月升势。 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/covid-crash-2020 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/covid-crash-2020 Mon, 16 Mar 2020 00:00:00 GMT 危机 全市场抛售筹现，金价短暂下跌 12% 后 Fed 无限 QE 引发反弹。 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/repo-2019 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/repo-2019 Tue, 17 Sep 2019 00:00:00 GMT 危机 隔夜利率飙升,美联储重启扩表。 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/trade-war-yc-2019 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/trade-war-yc-2019 Wed, 14 Aug 2019 00:00:00 GMT 货币政策 2-10Y 美债倒挂叠加贸易摩擦，金价突破 6 年高点。 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/fed-cut-2019 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/fed-cut-2019 Wed, 31 Jul 2019 00:00:00 GMT 货币政策 25bp 保险式降息开启宽松。 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/fed-pivot-2019 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/fed-pivot-2019 Fri, 04 Jan 2019 00:00:00 GMT 货币政策 2018 年末次加息后 Fed 转向暂停，实际利率回落，金价开启上行。 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/fed-hike-2018 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/fed-hike-2018 Wed, 19 Dec 2018 00:00:00 GMT 货币政策 鹰派加息成市场底,随后政策转向。 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/fed-hike-2016 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/fed-hike-2016 Wed, 14 Dec 2016 00:00:00 GMT 货币政策 年内唯一加息,点阵图转鹰。 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/trump-2016 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/trump-2016 Wed, 09 Nov 2016 00:00:00 GMT 政策 意外当选，金价隔夜急升随后回落，与 2024 形成情景对照。 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/brexit-2016 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/brexit-2016 Thu, 23 Jun 2016 00:00:00 GMT 地缘 公投意外通过，金价单日跳涨 4.7%。 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/fed-first-hike-2015 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/fed-first-hike-2015 Wed, 16 Dec 2015 00:00:00 GMT 货币政策 首次加息时金价见底，开启 4 年震荡复苏。 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/yuan-deval-2015 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/yuan-deval-2015 Tue, 11 Aug 2015 00:00:00 GMT 政策 央行下调人民币中间价引发全球市场动荡，金价获避险支撑。 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/greece-ref-2015 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/greece-ref-2015 Sun, 05 Jul 2015 00:00:00 GMT 危机 公投否决纾困条款,欧元区动荡。 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/swiss-gold-2014 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/swiss-gold-2014 Sun, 30 Nov 2014 00:00:00 GMT 政策 央行增持黄金的公投遭否决,金价短线回落。 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/qe3-end-2014 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/qe3-end-2014 Wed, 29 Oct 2014 00:00:00 GMT 货币政策 资产购买退出,美元走强压制金价。 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/crimea-2014 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/crimea-2014 Mon, 03 Mar 2014 00:00:00 GMT 地缘 克里米亚危机升级，GPR 飙升，避险推动金价上行。 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/no-taper-2013 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/no-taper-2013 Wed, 18 Sep 2013 00:00:00 GMT 货币政策 市场普遍预期开始缩减购债却落空，金价单日跳涨约 4%。 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/taper-tantrum-2013 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/taper-tantrum-2013 Wed, 19 Jun 2013 00:00:00 GMT 货币政策 美联储暗示缩减购债，实际利率快速反弹，金价创 30 年最大单月跌幅。 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/gold-crash-2013 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/gold-crash-2013 Mon, 15 Apr 2013 00:00:00 GMT 里程碑 塞浦路斯抛售传闻 + ETF 大幅流出，金价两日暴跌约 13%，确立熊市信号。 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/qe3-2012 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/qe3-2012 Thu, 13 Sep 2012 00:00:00 GMT 货币政策 开放式每月购债,压低实际利率,利多黄金。 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/eu-debt-2011 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/eu-debt-2011 Tue, 06 Sep 2011 00:00:00 GMT 危机 欧元区主权债危机达到顶点，金价创历史新高 1923 美元。 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/us-downgrade-2011 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/us-downgrade-2011 Fri, 05 Aug 2011 00:00:00 GMT 政策 标普首次将美国 AAA 评级下调至 AA+，避险买盘推动金价创历史新高。 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/greece-bailout-2010 https://gold-factor-timeline.zeabur.app/events/greece-bailout-2010 Sun, 09 May 2010 00:00:00 GMT 危机 欧元区与 IMF 联合救助希腊,主权债务危机蔓延。